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Thursday 4 February 2010

Range trading on the back of some bad news...

The S&P rallied in the early part of this week, mainly on the back of good GDP news at the end of last week. However, a mixed bag of news surrounding jobless claims in the US, concern governments will struggle to fund their budget deficits in Europe, strikes in Greece promted by spending cuts and the BoE deciding against further quantitive easing has caused the market to drop sharply today.

Worth noting that both the BoE and the ECB have held rates at 0.5% and 1.0% respectively.

The BoE decision in relation to QE looks to be driven by inflationary concerns. This may put upwards pressure on interest rates. However, the ECB and the FED have signalled the intention of keeping rates at their current levels for an extended period. In the UK growth was lower than expected at 0.1% which is leading many analysts to expect that rates will remain low to avoid falling back into recession.

All good news for my portfolio which is net short. I had cut my S&P short on Monday @ 1080 following the rally. I since opened another short close to the top of the range @ 1097 which is looking healthy. I am sitting on the BAC, AAL and PRU positions. The Dollar trade is also looking good especially on the back of the jobless claims news out of the US. All in all, I am still bearish.




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